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The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation Ahead, by Harry S. Dent Jr.
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Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a “great deflation” and what to do about it now
Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-sosecret weapon: demographics. He can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.
Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation.
Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions and offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies.
- Sales Rank: #78518 in Books
- Brand: Portfolio
- Published on: 2015-08-25
- Released on: 2015-08-25
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.40" h x .90" w x 5.50" l, .72 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 368 pages
- Portfolio
Review
“I bought the book, and it's amazing. It presents some complicated data very simply.”
—Rush Limbaugh
About the Author
Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Great Depression Ahead among many other economic and financial books. He is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation and founder of Dent Research, which publishes Survive and Prosper, Boom and Bust and The HS Dent Forecast.
Most helpful customer reviews
101 of 106 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent Thesis Terribly Supported
By Andy Marx
I finally found someone who wrote a book on the economic topic that I think is largely ignored: the coming retirement of millions of baby-boomers and how that is going to effect the economic landscape for the next 30 years. Harry Dent is spot on in recognizing how this shift is likely to cause extremely large changes in spending habits for millions of individuals, and, more importantly, what that means to folks like me that are much younger (37).
Mr. Dent does a marvelous job developing his thesis with various graphs supporting the notion that as people age their spending habits change. But that's about as far as he goes. As others have noted, he quickly loses focus (and credibility in my opinion) when he jumps into all sorts of other "wave" theories. This starts in chapter 2 and continues for the rest of the book. I was totally captured by the first chapter (thesis) and by chapter 2 or 3 I just started skimming as he runs terribly off topic. Mr. Dent is rather like a conspiracy theorist: if you believe in one conspiracy you believe in them all. Dent believes in one wave (the demographic wave) but then goes on in nausiating fashion to show a bunch of other waves, which in my opinion are used by fanatics who are trying to sell a product rather than real science.
Dent's got an excellent theory and the data to support what will happen to spending levels in different areas over the next 30 years: why the heck is he talking about solar activity? He could have written a detailed book, almost an industry-by-chapter- about exactly what his data shows.
But he got lazy. And moreover, he loses credibility because every few pages he says something akin to: "if you go to my website I'll send you a newsletter and you can follow along as we go." Guess what? To get Mr. Dent's data in any useful form, you'll have to pay for a subscription.
Too bad: Dent could have been a really great author. He could have developed this topic and gone into a mainstream career as the go-to authority on the demographic shift that's about to occur. But in the end you end up feeling like he's more a snake-oil salesman than a true professional.
What could have been isn't!
264 of 280 people found the following review helpful.
A significant book. Must read. Fire editor and publisher.
By Nevada
This is a very significant book and I would recommend that everyone read it. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the author digresses significantly and often into topics for which he demonstrates very little expertise. I was frustrated and found myself skimming about 40 percent of this book as trash. The other 60 percent was very important and worth it at twice the price. Definitely a recommend, but with the qualification that you be patient and be willing to skip through portions of the book.
Mr. Dent does a fabulous job as a demographer and the work he shows is exceptional. He presents one of the strongest cases I've ever seen for future economic cycles...I think everyone should be armed with this evidence and decide how best to use it. I was so pleased with such a solid fundamental approach to the world's economic situation.
Now the bad:
Covers topics like sunspots' effect on the US stock market; paints inflation only in the context of dollar value vs. other currencies; delves into politics and oversimplifies (and misrepresents) the positions of various parties; discusses environmental disaster and mischaracterizes the science; He gets way too far into the weeds. He should have stuck with the primary thesis of his book.
I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but this guy comes off as a know-it-all and quite narcissistic. I would fire the editor and publisher for letting this book go so far astray.
With the negatives said, the core of this book is fantastic and I expect the science behind his demographics is solid. I am quite glad to recommend this book and I am very happy that I purchased it. This book provides so much insight into the economic cycles and where we are headed from here for the next 20 years or so. I wish there was an abridged version that sticks to the primary topic so this book were more accessible to more people. Please buy the book, and try to overlook the negatives I've discussed above. Also, please read other books on this topic. I'm sure the author is right in the main, but I would be very careful about investing 100% of your portfolio in the manner he suggests. Still, food for thought and I'm glad I bought the book!! Enjoy.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
A tough act to follow
By MDia
Harry Dent's first book was spectacular. It remains the only compelling analysis of the ups and downs of the stock market that I've ever read. A tough act to follow ! His second book, The Demographic Cliff, was disappointing. According to his own analysis, the economic impact of so-called cliff in the USA will probably not be significant....although it probably will have great impact elsewhere. Unlike his first book, which was precisely argued and highly focused, the follow up rambles on and on about everything under the sun.
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